Holiday Spending Forecasts Are In: What Small Retailers Should Expect

Picture a gift shop owner in a small river town, alone at the counter after closing on a Tuesday in October. A reorder for candles, puzzles and wrapping paper sits open on the laptop, waiting for a number.

Order too much and January means clearance racks and a thin bank account. Order too little and the shelves go bare the week before Christmas, when customers are ready to pay full price.

This month, the big holiday forecasts finally gave that owner something to work with. Here is what they say, and how a shop that size can use them.

What do the 2026 holiday spending forecasts say?

Four widely watched outlooks landed between early September and mid-October. They agree on the direction: shoppers will spend more than last year, but not a lot more.

Forecaster	Released	Period covered	Forecast
NRF	Oct. 15	Nov. 1 to Dec. 31	$1.013 trillion, up 4.2%
Deloitte	Sept. 10	Nov. through Jan.	$1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up 4.0% to 4.8%
Adobe	Late Sept.	Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, online only	$275.1 billion, up 6.7%
PwC	Early Sept.	Per-shopper gift budget	$708, down about 2%

The National Retail Federation’s forecast, released Oct. 15, expects November and December retail sales to total $1.013 trillion, a 4.2% increase over 2025. NRF counts core retail only, so car dealers, gas stations and restaurants are left out. By NRF’s count, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% to $972 billion.

Deloitte’s forecast, published Sept. 10, uses a longer window that runs through January. It projects $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion in sales, up 4.0% to 4.8%. Deloitte ties the outlook to disposable personal income, which its economist expects to grow 4.5% to 5.2% over the season.

Why are online holiday sales growing faster than stores?

Every forecast that splits out e-commerce shows it outpacing the total. Deloitte expects online holiday sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4%.

Adobe, which tracks visits to U.S. retail sites, projects $275.1 billion in online spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.7%, according to Digital Commerce 360’s report on the forecast. Adobe expects phones to carry 57.4% of those online sales and traffic referred by AI tools to rise 130% from last year.

That does not mean stores are fading. Deloitte’s own figures put e-commerce at under a fifth of its holiday total. What it does mean is that many gift searches now start on a phone, even when the purchase ends at a counter.

For a small shop, the practical question is whether a customer searching from the couch can see what you carry, what it costs and whether it is in stock before they drive over.

Are shoppers spending more, or just paying more?

Some of both. PwC’s Holiday Outlook survey of 4,093 U.S. consumers, fielded June 15 to 26, found an average expected gift budget of $708, which PwC described as a dip of about 2%, according to Consumer Goods Technology’s coverage. Millennials expected to trim gift budgets 10% and Gen Z 9%. Twenty-nine percent said they would use AI to research gifts and compare prices, up from 22% last year.

Deloitte reported value-seeking across income levels, including shoppers switching brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. NRF said retailers are hiring cautiously, planning 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, because of higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and high consumer debt.

Keep in mind that these forecasts are in current dollars. Adobe’s figures, for example, are not adjusted for inflation. A 4% rise in sales can include a good share of higher prices rather than more items leaving the store.

When will the biggest shopping days hit this year?

The calendar is compact. Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26, Black Friday on Nov. 27, Small Business Saturday on Nov. 28 and Cyber Monday on Nov. 30.

Adobe expects that five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday to bring in $47.5 billion online, up 7.4%, or about 17.3% of the season. It projects Black Friday online sales of $12.9 billion, up 9.2%.

Discounts will be steep at the big chains. Talk Business & Politics reported that Adobe expects electronics discounts to peak around 30% off list price during Cyber Week, with toys near 29%. Adobe also projects $21.3 billion in buy now, pay later spending over the season, up 6.6%.

What should small retailers do with these numbers?

Forecasts describe the whole country, not your block. Still, they offer a few useful guardrails.

• Plan for low single-digit growth. If last November and December were solid, budget inventory for a modest lift, not a breakout. Order core sellers with a reorder plan instead of one large bet.
• Do not try to match 30% off. A small shop rarely wins a price war with national chains. Bundles, gift sets and add-ons can protect margin. Our guide to price-pack architecture walks through how to adjust size and bundles instead of slashing price.
• Make your stock visible online. With phone shopping and AI-assisted search rising, post current products, prices and holiday hours where shoppers look first.
• Offer flexible payment if your processor supports it. Buy now, pay later keeps growing during the holidays, and some shoppers now expect to see it at checkout.
• Watch cash, not just sales. A busy December can still leave a tight January once supplier bills and card fees clear. This explainer on reading real profit instead of your bank balance is worth a look before you place that last order.

If you have not finished your pre-season prep, our list of Q4 moves to make before the holiday rush covers staffing, inventory and marketing steps.

How much should a small business trust a holiday forecast?

Treat these numbers as a weather report, not a guarantee. NRF builds its outlook from indicators such as consumer spending, income, employment, wages, inflation and recent monthly retail sales. Deloitte uses a different time window. Adobe measures only online sales. That is why the headline numbers do not line up neatly.

Your own data is the better guide. Last year’s sell-through by week, your best-selling price points and how early your regulars shopped will tell you more than a national average. Use the forecasts to check your assumptions, not to replace them.

For the gift shop owner at the counter, the answer to that open reorder is now a little clearer. Shoppers are coming, budgets are careful and online search matters more than ever. A measured order, a few smart bundles and a store that is easy to find online give that owner a fair shot at a December that pays for itself.

Frequently asked questions

How much will Americans spend during the 2026 holidays?

The National Retail Federation expects November and December retail sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% from 2025. Deloitte, which also counts January, projects $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion. The figures differ because each forecaster uses a different time window and definition of retail.

Is holiday shopping expected to be up or down this year?

Total sales are expected to rise modestly, by roughly 4% to 5% depending on the forecaster. Individual gift budgets are flat to slightly lower, with PwC's survey showing an average of $708, down about 2%, which suggests shoppers will look hard for value.

When is Black Friday in 2026?

Black Friday falls on Friday, Nov. 27, 2026, the day after Thanksgiving. Small Business Saturday follows on Nov. 28, and Cyber Monday is Nov. 30.

How much of holiday shopping happens online?

Deloitte projects online holiday sales of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, which is under a fifth of its total holiday forecast. Online sales are growing faster than overall sales, and Adobe expects more than half of online purchases to happen on phones.

Should small retailers offer big Black Friday discounts?

Not necessarily. Large chains can afford deep markdowns that would erase a small shop's margin. Many independents do better with bundles, gift sets, service and local events. Talk with your accountant before committing to markdowns that could affect cash flow.

Sources

• NRF: NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient
• Deloitte: Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion
• Digital Commerce 360: Adobe projects 2026 online holiday sales of $275 billion
• Talk Business & Politics: Online holiday sales expected to top $275 billion in 2026
• Consumer Goods Technology: Consumers use AI for coupon clipping this holiday season

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